Weather: PAGASA March 2016 Rainfall Map

For the previous report, please click here.

INTRODUCTION. The Philippines has been feeling the effects of extreme El Niño since early this year, bringing about parched fields and mountain areas across the country, with Mindanao facing the worst dry spell and drought in recent history. Factually, we heard of news about forest fires in Mounts Apo and Kitanglad, both located in parts of Mindanao Island which received rainfall that are below the normal average since last year 2015. Many farmers in Mindanao marched their way to the national highway in Kidapawan City to call attention of relevant authorities and to ask for aid because the land is too dry to support farming, that protest shocked everyone when it lead to the bloody confrontation with the police on March 31. Luzon and Visayas were also not spared from the gravity of the 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon as dams continue to register decrease in water level. The data below will tell you that March 2016 may go down in history as one of the driest months in the Philippines.

Weather: PAGASA February 2016 Rainfall Map

INTRODUCTION. The El Niño (lit. the little boy) is an unusual rise in the sea surface temperature along the Pacific Ocean, which brings changes in weather patterns across much of the countries facing the Pacific. In the Philippines, El Niño means lower amount of rainfall which may result in dry spell and drought. As early as 2014, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA, the Philippine official weather agency) has been warning the public of an imminent El Niño, only in mid-2015 did they confirm the country is experiencing “mild El Niño,” and is in danger of facing hotter and drier months.

{E} Weather: Latest Track of TC "Isang" (Cimaron/1308)

Tropical Cyclone "Isang"

International Name: Cimaron
RSMC-Tokyo Designated Code: 1308
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Designated Code: 08W

For PAGASA Doppler Radar:

• Project NOAH
• ClimateX
• Aparri Radar: Northern Luzon PRSD
• In This Blog: {E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar Status

Doppler Radar Imagery

Tropical Depression "Isang" (Cimaron) about to make landfall over northeastern part of Cagayan Province at 17 July 2013 04:25:00AM PHT (UTC+8).
Notice the 20m/s (~70kph) winds near the center.
Retrieved from PAGASA Aparri Radar via Northern Luzon PRSD website.

POSSIBLE LANDFALL:

PAGASA
>> ISABELA-CAGAYAN (accurate)*
JMA
>> CAGAYAN PROVINCE (accurate)
Cyclocane
>> CAGAYAN PROVINCE (accurate)

Note:
*only PAGASA reported a landfall over Isabela.

PAGASA Latest Track (PHT, UTC+8)

Japan Meteorological Agency Latest Track (UTC, PHT-8)

|| cHNJoeCo0327Xi5084>15>lQObk

{E} Weather: Track of TC "Huaning" (Soulik/1307) [FINAL]

Tropical Cyclone "Huaning"

International Name: Soulik
RSMC-Tokyo Designated Code: 1307
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Designated Code: 07W

For PAGASA Doppler Radar:

• Project NOAH
• ClimateX
• In This Blog: {E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar Status

Doppler Radar Images

Center Position (or the eye) of Typhoon Huaning (Soulik)
at 12 July 2013 10:00:00PM PHT (UTC+8)
located west of Ryukyu Islands, Japan as it approaches Taiwan for landfall.
Retrieved from Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon Huaning (Soulik) making landfall over Northern Taiwan
at 13 July 2013 03:10:21 PHT (UTC+8). Retrieved from China Meteorological Administration Fuzhou Radar Station via weather.com.cn

PAGASA Final Track (PHT, UTC+8)

Digital Typhoon Final Track (PHT-8, UTC)

Japan Meteorological Agency Final Track (PHT-8, UTC)

|| cHNJoeCo0327Xi5084>15>lQOb1o

{E} Weather: Track of TC "Gorio" (Rumbia/1306) [FINAL]

Tropical Cyclone "Gorio"

International Name: Rumbia
RSMC-Tokyo Designated Code: 1306
Joint Typhoon Warning Center Designated Code: 06W

For PAGASA Doppler Radar:

• Project NOAH
• ClimateX
• In This Blog: {E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar Status

Center Position Imagery of TC "Gorio"

Center position of TC "Gorio" at 11:25:08AM 06/30/2013 PHT (UTC+8).
"Gorio" was located West of Central Luzon
(retrieved from PAGASA Subic Radar Station via climatex.ph)

Center Position of Severe Tropical Storm "Rumbia"
at 11:29:29PM 2013/07/01 CST (PHT, UTC+8).
Rumbia was located northeast of Hainan Province, People's Republic of China and was approaching landfall over southwestern tip of Guangdong.
(retrieved from Haikou Radar Station of China Met. Administration via weather.gov.cn)

Center Position of Severe Tropical Storm "Rumbia" making landfall over southwestern tip of Guangdong Province at 5:31:42PM 2013/07/02 CST (PHT, UTC+8).
(retrieved from Haikou Radar Station of China Met. Administration via weather.com.cn)

LANDFALL AREAS***:

PAGASA
>> SAMAR ISLAND (accurate*)
>> BICOL REGION (accurate*)
>> SOUTHERN LUZON (accurate*)
>> CENTRAL LUZON (never occurred*)
Cyclocane
>> SAMAR ISLAND (missed**)
>> BICOL REGION (accurate**)
>> SOUTHERN LUZON (accurate**)
>> METRO MANILA AND  CENTRAL LUZON (never occurred**)
JTWC-US Navy
>> SAMAR ISLAND (accurate*)
>> BICOL REGION (accurate*)
>> SOUTHERN LUZON (accurate*)
>> METRO MANILA AND CENTRAL LUZON (never occurred*)
JMA (RSMC-Tokyo)
>> SAMAR ISLAND (missed*)
>> BICOL REGION (accurate*)
>> SOUTHERN LUZON (accurate*)
>> METRO MANILA AND CENTRAL LUZON (never occurred*)
Notes:
*  landfall forecast accuracy based on forecast error area
** landfall forecast accuracy based on center position forecast as it does not give forecast error area
*** possible landfall area interpreted based on center position forecast [the center line], not on forecast error area

PAGASA Final Track (PHT, UTC+8)

Japan Meteorologcial Agency Final Track

|| cHNJoeCo0327Xi5=4i15>nQObql

{E} Weather: Track of TC "Fabian" (Bebinca/1305) [FINAL]

Tropical Cyclone "Fabian"

International Name: Bebinca
RSMC-Tokyo Designated Number: 1305

For PAGASA Doppler Radar:

• Project NOAH
• ClimateX
• In This Blog: {E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar Status

PAGASA Final Track (PHT, UTC+8)

Japan Meteorological Agency Final Track (PHT+1, UTC+9)

|| cHNJoeCo0327145n6=40n615>nQObqo

{E} Weather: Track of TC "Emong" (Leepi/1304) [FINAL]

Tropical Cyclone "Emong"

International Name: Leepi
RSMC-Tokyo Designated Code: 1304

For PAGASA Doppler Radar:

• Project NOAH
• ClimateX
• In This Blog: {E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar Status

PAGASA Final Track (PHT, UTC+8)

Japan Meteorological Agency Final Track (PHT+1, UTC+9)

Track of Tropical Cyclone "Leepi" is numbered 4.
Then newly-upgraded Tropical Storm "Bebinca" (Local Name: "Fabian") is numbered as 5.

Tropical Storm Risk Track

Digital Typhoon Track

|| cHNJoeCo0327145n6=40n615>nQObd

{E} Weather: Track of TC "Dante" (Yagi/1303) [FINAL]

Tropical Cyclone (TC) "Dante":
International Codename: "Yagi"
RSMC-Tokyo (JMA) Designated Number: 1303

• Official Twitter hashtag: #DantePH 

PAGASA Doppler Radar:

• Project NOAH
• ClimateX
• In this blog: {E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar Status

PAGASA-DOST Final Track (PHT)

Japan Meteorological Agency Final Track

 
Digital Typhoon Best Track (Final)





|| cHNJoeCo0327145n6=40n615>n3QObs

{E} Current PAGASA Doppler Radar status

All images are retrieved from ClimateX.ph. No copyright infringement intended.
All Doppler radar stations are owned by PAGASA-DOST and such data are being shown via Project NOAH and ClimateX.

Notes:
Online - radar images/animations from the PAGASA radar station can be seen in Project NOAH and/or ClimateX websites.
Operational but not online - these Doppler radars are working but not yet available online.
Station under construction - future Doppler radar stations of PAGASA, construction not yet completed, however, the weather bureau is hoping that these stations may finally be operational by the end of the year.

Doppler radar images below show their 240 kilometer (km) coverage, but they have the capacity to cover as far as 480 kms. especially during severe weather conditions.

LUZON
1. Baguio City (online since 201207, 201212)

Within 240km Radius Coverage:
CAR: Baguio City, Apayao (southern part), Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abr
Region I: Ilocos Norte (southern part), Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan
Region II: Cagayan (southwestern part including Tuguegarao City), Isabela (western and central parts including Cauayan and Ilagan cities), Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino
Region III: Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, and Bataan (except southern part)
Region IV-A: Quezon (northernmost part only), Rizal (northern part)
NCR: Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, Quezon City (northern part)

2. Subic, Zambales (online since 201206)


3. Tagaytay City, Cavite (online since 201206)


4. Baler, Aurora (operational but not online)
5. Virac, Catanduanes (operational but not online)
6. Aparri, Cagayan (operational but not online)
7. Busuanga, Palawan (station under construction)
8. somewhere in southern Palawan (status uncertain)

VISAYAS
1. Mactan, Lapu-Lapu City (online since 201206)


2. Guiuan, Eastern Samar (operational but not online)
3. Iloilo City (station under construction)

MINDANAO
1. Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (online since 201206)


2. Tampakan, South Cotabato (online since 201301)


3. Zamboanga City (station under construction)

Read more:
{Type E} Didn't Hinatuan Radar really work in the wake of Typhoon Pablo?
{Type M} Project NOAH, ClimateX, and PAGASA Doppler radars

|| chnJoeCo032775x>33n3QObb

{E} Didn't Hinatuan Radar really work in the wake of Typhoon Pablo?

Recently, I read a news article from Mindanews.com dated Dec. 6, 2012 saying that Philippine president Noynoy Aquino was not aware that the country's state weather agency PAGASA's[1] Doppler radar station (or equipment) in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur was not working at the time Typhoon Pablo[2] ravaged the supposed "typhoon-free" Mindanao.

Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas himself was not aware of the problem, and said that the President was not noted about it.

Read more: {E} Latest Track for Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO)

The eye of Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) over Davao Region
as shown in this Doppler radar imagery from the Hinatuan station.
From PAGASA's Facebook page

But, PAGASA's Facebook page posted one of Hinatuan radar's images showing the eye of Pablo over somewhere between Davao Oriental where it made landfall and the adjacent province of Compostela Valley December 4 morning.

I'm not saying that the news is completely wrong. No. The reporter(s) who asked Sec. Roxas perhaps consulted the Project NOAH website for the rainfall amount Typhoon Pablo had. And at that time, the Hinatuan radar is "under maintenance" (sorry, I don't have snapshots of it for proof), so he/she/they may had concluded it as "down".

Read more: {M} Project NOAH, ClimateX, and PAGASA Doppler radars

Nevertheless, with that image as basis, Hinatuan radar station was really working at that time.

I think, it is just the "connectivity problems" of the radar equipment with Project NOAH which was needed for resolution.

So this time, we cannot blame the radar equipment again for the loss of more than a thousand people, two years in a row.

Sorry peeps.

The thing is, our Doppler radars are now reliable in giving us rainfall updates in most parts of the country. I can't wait for all of them to appear in Project NOAH. I'm so excited to see it, very soon.

(Sorry to those who may have been struck and hurt by this blog post. I just based everything "on facts, not fiction".)

|| cHNJoeCo0327Xi5045n3n3QObg

Footnotes: [1] stands for Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
[2] internationally known as Typhoon Bopha

{E} Latest Track for Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO)

PAGASA Track

Final Track of Typhoon "Pablo" (Bopha)
From: PAGASA-DOST

Typhoon2000.com Track

Final Track of Typhoon "Bopha" (Pablo)
From: Typhoon2000.com

University of Central Florida

Final Track of Typhoon "Bopha" (Pablo)
From: University of Central Florida

Japan Meteorological Agency

Final Track of Typhoon "Bopha" (Pablo)
From Japan Meteorological Agency

>> rrj@chn_2012-12-03