Weather: PAGASA March 2016 Rainfall Map

For the previous report, please click here.

INTRODUCTION. The Philippines has been feeling the effects of extreme El Niño since early this year, bringing about parched fields and mountain areas across the country, with Mindanao facing the worst dry spell and drought in recent history. Factually, we heard of news about forest fires in Mounts Apo and Kitanglad, both located in parts of Mindanao Island which received rainfall that are below the normal average since last year 2015. Many farmers in Mindanao marched their way to the national highway in Kidapawan City to call attention of relevant authorities and to ask for aid because the land is too dry to support farming, that protest shocked everyone when it lead to the bloody confrontation with the police on March 31. Luzon and Visayas were also not spared from the gravity of the 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon as dams continue to register decrease in water level. The data below will tell you that March 2016 may go down in history as one of the driest months in the Philippines.

MAP BACKGROUND. Based on the rainfall observation gathered by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA, the Philippine official weather agency) from its numerous weather stations around the country for the duration of 1-31 March 2016, the weather bureau released its final rainfall map for March 2016.

PAGASA Rainfall Map for March 2016

The leftmost map shows the average rainfall rate received by each area in the Philippines based on its observations in every March between 1981 and 2010; the darker the color, the area shall expect more rain for this particular month. The actual monthly rainfall for March 2016 is shown at the middle column, while the percent of normal (%N) is at the rightmost column. The purpose of showing the %N is to give us an idea if the rain we received for the entire month is normal (just right) or not (excessive or deficient).

Simple computation for the %N is as follows:

For example, Kidapawan City in Mindanao is expected to receive around 50 millimeters (mm) of rain for March. The actual observation for March 2016 for that city is only 8mm. We compute by stating that “Actual Observation” must be divided by the “Average Monthly Rainfall”. So, it will be 8mm divided by 50mm, and it will give us 0.16 as result. Remember, 0.16 is also 16%. Therefore, this 2016, Kidapawan City only received 16% of the normal rainfall for the month of March.

According to PAGASA,

If you get…	Then, the actual rainfall for the month is…	PAGASA Color Code
0% - 40%	…way below normal, in other words, the area did receive little to nothing.	Red
41% - 80%	…below normal. The area is rain deficient.	Yellow
81% - 120%	…near normal, so a little more or a little less may not be big deal	Green
More than 120%	…above normal. The area received excessive amount of rain.	Blue

Citing the result we have above, Kidapawan City received rainfall that was way below the monthly normal/average. So, we expect PAGASA to put Kidapawan City and maybe some nearby towns in color red.

FINDINGS. If some of you do not comprehend the map, or maybe are lost in locating your area. The table that I made below will give you an easier understanding on what the map is trying to imply. The color coding is consistent with the standards from PAGASA, however, if you may notice some provinces in the map may have multiple colors, please note that the shading of each province in the table represents only the dominant color.

 

ILOCOS REGION (REGION I)

ILOCOS NORTE

ILOCOS SUR

LA UNION

PANGASINAN

CAGAYAN VALLEY (REGION II)

BATANES

CAGAYAN

ISABELA

NUEVA VIZCAYA

QUIRINO

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)

ABRA

APAYAO

BENGUET

IFUGAO

KALINGA

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE

CENTRAL LUZON (REGION III)

AURORA

BATAAN

BULACAN

NUEVA ECIJA

PAMPANGA

TARLAC

ZAMBALES

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR)

FIRST DISTRICT (CAPITAL)

SECOND DISTRICT (EASTERN)

THIRD DISTRICT (NORTHERN)

FOURTH DISTRICT (SOUTHERN)

·      NCR Second District covers Quezon City and the cities of San Juan, Mandaluyong, Marikina, and Pasig ·      NCR Third District covers the cities of Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, and Valenzuela ·      NCR Fourth District covers the cities of Pasay, Parañaque, Las Piñas, Makati, Taguig, Muntinlupa, and the municipality of Pateros

CALABARZON (REGION IV-A)

BATANGAS

CAVITE

LAGUNA

QUEZON

RIZAL

MIMAROPA (REGION IV-B)

MARINDUQUE

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO

ORIENTAL MINDORO

ROMBLON

PALAWAN

BICOL REGION (REGION V)

ALBAY

CAMARINES NORTE

CAMARINES SUR

CATANDUANES

MASBATE

SORSOGON

WESTERN VISAYAS (REGION VI)

AKLAN

ANTIQUE

CAPIZ

GUIMARAS

ILOILO

NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR)

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL

NEGROS ORIENTAL

CENTRAL VISAYAS (REGION VII)

BOHOL

CEBU

SIQUIJOR

EASTERN VISAYAS (REGION VIII)

BILIRAN

EASTERN SAMAR

LEYTE

NORTHERN SAMAR

SAMAR

SOUTHERN LEYTE

ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (REGION IX)

ISABELA CITY

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY

·      Isabela City is geographically attributed to an ARMM province, Basilan. Voted not to be included in the ARMM in 2001.

NORTHERN MINDANAO (REGION X)

BUKIDNON

CAMIGUIN

LANAO DEL NORTE

MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL

MISAMIS ORIENTAL

DAVAO REGION (REGION XI)

COMPOSTELA VALLEY

DAVAO DEL NORTE

DAVAO DEL SUR

DAVAO OCCIDENTAL

DAVAO ORIENTAL

SOCCSKSARGEN (REGION XII)

COTABATO

COTABATO CITY

SARANGANI

SOUTH COTABATO

SULTAN KUDARAT

·      Cotabato City is geographically attributed to an ARMM province, Maguindanao. Voted not to be included in the ARMM in 2001.

CARAGA REGION (REGION XIII)

AGUSAN DEL NORTE

AGUSAN DEL SUR

DINAGAT ISLANDS

SURIGAO DEL NORTE

SURIGAO DEL SUR

AUTONOMOUS REGION IN MUSLIM MINDANAO (ARMM)

BASILAN

LANAO DEL SUR

MAGUINDANAO

SULU

TAWI-TAWI

MAJOR CITIES

LAOAG

BAGUIO

TUGUEGARAO

ANGELES

LEGASPI

PUERTO PRINCESA

ILOILO CITY

BACOLOD

DUMAGUETE

CEBU CITY

TAGBILARAN

TACLOBAN

ZAMBOANGA CITY

CAGAYAN DE ORO

BUTUAN

MARAWI

DAVAO CITY

GENERAL SANTOS

We can see that the entire Philippines was greatly affected by the ongoing El Niño. Not a single region received sufficient amount of rainfall for March 2016. Thus it will be no question if the photos and videos on farmlands that we see recently are all showing soil that are too parched, crops that are so not worthy of harvest, and rivers that are too shallow to support marine life.

Though PAGASA and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) predicted that starting this April, El Niño might weaken and Pacific Ocean temperatures will go back to neutral conditions mid-2016, but the Philippines has just started its dry season for this year, so abnormal rainfall rate is still to be expected for the next two to three months.

PIE CHARTS.