INTRODUCTION.
When the news about the latest survey results pop out of your TV screens, there
will be at least three feedbacks: you believe them, you don’t believe them, or
you shrug them off. But most of the time, we cast doubts and start to question
the survey results: Are these surveys reliable? Are they true and accurate?
Should I trust these? So on and so forth.
Through this blog post, I will try to prove (or disprove)
the accuracy of the big two pollsters in the Philippines: the Social Weather
Stations (SWS) and the Pulse Asia Research.
THE POLLSTERS. The
SWS and Pulse Asia are both non-profit and non-partisan research organizations
in the country. SWS is the older one, while Pulse Asia came more than a decade
later. They did not only conduct surveys just for elections, they also have
surveys for public satisfaction towards the government and its officials, for
the economic outlook (e.g. unemployment, trade, poverty/hunger), for the
national issues (on West Philippine Sea, insurgencies in parts of Mindanao,
etc.), and even for the people’s general attitude for an incoming New Year!
In the election context, Pulse Asia “traditionally” conducts
their final pre-election poll on the last week of April, while SWS conducts
theirs on the first week of May, just under a week before the elections. This
2016, both pollsters approached more people than they did for the past
elections since EDSA I Revolution, firstly, it is perhaps because of the
convenience the modern technology can now provide (imagine how hard to conduct
surveys nationwide without the gadgets we have right now!), and secondly, if
you remember the survey law: the more respondents you have, the more accurate
the results you may have. SWS has at most 4,500 respondents, the most they had so far,
while Pulse Asia also has a record number of respondents at 4,000.
COMPARISON PROCEDURE.
Below are tables that will show you the final pre-election survey rankings
and preference percentages of presidentiables from Pulse Asia first (for they
conduct their final surveys earlier than SWS) for 1998, 2004 and 2010, to be
compared side-to-side with the results from SWS for 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010.
Then the last columns are the vote share percentages coming from the actual
Commission of Elections (COMELEC) final canvassing report. A check mark shall
be seen beside the rankings if the pollsters’ predictions are accurate, and a
cross mark if they are not. Please note that I gave emphasis on rankings rather
than the voter share percentages, and I also stressed importance to whether the
pollsters did accurately predict the eventual winner of every presidential election
or not. I just include the non-winning candidates’ results to see where the
pollsters missed the mark.
1992 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS.
Source: “SWS SURVEYS ON THE 1992, 1995 AND 1998 NATIONAL
ELECTIONS” A report by Mr. Gerardo A. Sandoval of the Social Weather Stations (View
at http://www.sws.org.ph/statcon2.htm)
CANDIDATE
|
Pulse
Asia
|
SWS
(26 April - 4 May 1992)
|
COMELEC
(10
May 1992)
|
||||
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
||
RAMOS, Fidel V.
|
not
applicable
|
26.8
|
1 √
|
23.6
|
1
|
||
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO,
Miriam
(First bid) |
25.0
|
2 √
|
19.7
|
2
|
|||
COJUANGCO,
Eduardo Jr.
|
16.2
|
3 √
|
18.2
|
3
|
|||
MITRA,
Ramon Jr. (†)
|
14.1
|
4 √
|
14.6
|
4
|
|||
MARCOS,
Imelda R. (First bid)
|
6.5
|
6 X
|
10.3
|
5
|
|||
SALONGA,
Jovito (†)
|
8.0
|
5 X
|
10.2
|
6
|
|||
LAUREL,
Salvador B. (†)
|
3.3
|
7 √
|
3.3
|
7
|
|||
PROJECTED WINNER: RAMOS, Fidel V. (via SWS) √
TWELFTH PRESIDENT OF THE
PHILIPPINES: RAMOS, Fidel V. (served 1992-1998)
|
|||||||
1998 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS.
Source: “Should we trust surveys and opinion polls?” A report by Mr. Jose Ramon Albert, Senior Research Fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), contributor of this article published at
Rappler.com (View at http://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/89126-trust-surveys-opinion-polls)
CANDIDATE
|
Pulse
Asia
(26-29 April 1998)
|
SWS
(2-4 May 1998)
|
COMELEC
(10
May 1998)
|
||||
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
||
ESTRADA, Joseph Ejercito
(First bid) |
37.0
|
1 √
|
33.0
|
1 √
|
39.9
|
1
|
|
DE
VENECIA, Jose
|
31.0
|
2 √
|
15.0
|
2 √
|
15.9
|
2
|
|
ROCO, Raul
(†) (First bid)
|
11.0
|
3 √
|
11.0
|
3 √
|
13.8
|
3
|
|
OSMEÑA,
Emilio
|
7.0
|
4 √
|
11.0
|
4 √
|
12.4
|
4
|
|
LIM,
Alfredo S.
|
5.0
|
5 √
|
10.0
|
5 √
|
8.7
|
5
|
|
*other
candidates (including MARCOS, Imelda and DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam [both second bids to the presidency]) unspecified
|
|||||||
PROJECTED WINNER: ESTRADA, Joseph Ejercito (both via
Pulse Asia and SWS) √
THIRTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE
PHILIPPINES: ESTRADA, Joseph Ejercito
(served 1998-2001, succeeded by his
Vice President MACAPAGAL-ARROYO, Gloria via EDSA II Revolution 2001-2004)
|
|||||||
2004 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS.
Source: “Should we trust surveys and opinion polls?” A report by Mr. Jose Ramon Albert, Senior Research Fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), contributor of this article published at
Rappler.com (View at http://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/89126-trust-surveys-opinion-polls)
CANDIDATE
|
Pulse
Asia
(23-25 April 2004)
|
SWS
(1-4 May 2004)
|
COMELEC
(10
May 2004)
|
||||
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
||
MACAPAGAL-ARROYO, Gloria
(incumbent
president at election)
|
37.0
|
1 √
|
37.0
|
1 √
|
40.0
|
1
|
|
POE,
Fernando Jr. (†)
|
31.0
|
2 √
|
30.0
|
2 √
|
36.5
|
2
|
|
LACSON,
Panfilo
|
11.0
|
3 √
|
11.0
|
3 √
|
10.9
|
3
|
|
ROCO, Raul
(†) (Second bid)
|
7.0
|
4 √
|
6.0
|
4 √
|
6.5
|
4
|
|
VILLANUEVA,
Eduardo (First bid)
|
5.0
|
5 √
|
4.0
|
5 √
|
6.2
|
5
|
|
GIL, Eddie
|
Disqualified
by COMELEC only after national campaign had started
|
||||||
PROJECTED WINNER: MACAPAGAL-ARROYO, Gloria (both
via Pulse Asia and SWS) √
FOURTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE
PHILIPPINES: MACAPAGAL-ARROYO, Gloria (via constitutionally mandated succession 2001-2004, via direct election 2004-2010)
|
|||||||
2010 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS.
Sources: “Should we trust surveys and opinion polls?” A report by Mr. Jose Ramon Albert, Senior Research Fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), contributor of this article published at
Rappler.com (View at http://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/89126-trust-surveys-opinion-polls)
“Philippine presidential election, 2010” on Wikipedia, the
free encyclopedia (View at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_presidential_election,_2010)
CANDIDATE
|
Pulse
Asia
(23-25 April 2010)
|
SWS
(2-3 May 2010)
|
COMELEC
(10
May 2010)
|
||||
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
||
AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III
|
39.0
|
1 √
|
42.0
|
1 √
|
42.1
|
1
|
|
ESTRADA,
Joseph Ejercito
(Second bid, comeback attempt)
|
20.0
|
2 √
|
20.0
|
2 √
|
26.3
|
2
|
|
VILLAR,
Manuel
|
20.0
|
3 √
|
19.0
|
3 √
|
15.4
|
3
|
|
TEODORO,
Gilberto
|
7.0
|
4 √
|
9.0
|
4 √
|
11.3
|
4
|
|
VILLANUEVA,
Eduardo (Second bid)
|
3.0
|
5 √
|
3.0
|
5 √
|
3.1
|
5
|
|
GORDON,
Richard
|
2.0
|
6 √
|
2.0
|
6 √
|
1.4
|
6
|
|
PERLAS,
Nicanor
|
0.3
|
7 √
|
0.1
|
9 X
|
0.2
|
7
|
|
MADRIGAL,
Maria Ana
|
0.1
|
9 X
|
0.2
|
8 √
|
0.13
|
8
|
|
DE LOS
REYES, John Carlos
|
0.2
|
8 X
|
0.3
|
7 X
|
0.12
|
9
|
|
ACOSTA,
Vetellano
|
Disqualified
by COMELEC, but name is included in the printed ballots
|
||||||
PROJECTED WINNER: AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III (both
via Pulse Asia and SWS) √
FIFTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE
PHILIPPINES: AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III (served 2010-2016)
|
|||||||
2016 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS (to be updated soon).
Sources: “Philippine presidential election, 2016” on
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (View at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_presidential_election,_2016)
Latest pre-election survey report by Pulse Asia (View at http://www.pulseasia.ph) and SWS (View at http://www.sws.org.ph)
Latest pre-election survey report by Pulse Asia (View at http://www.pulseasia.ph) and SWS (View at http://www.sws.org.ph)
|
CANDIDATE
|
Pulse
Asia
(26-29 April 2016)
|
SWS
(May
2016)
|
COMELEC
(9
May 2016)
|
|
|||
|
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
%
|
RANK
|
||
|
DUTERTE, Rodrigo R.
|
33.0
|
1 ü
|
33.0
|
1 ü
|
39.0
|
1
|
|
|
ROXAS, Manuel II A.
|
22.0
|
2 ü
|
20.0
|
3 û
|
23.5
|
2
|
|
|
POE, Grace S.
|
21.0
|
3 ü
|
22.0
|
2 û
|
21.4
|
3
|
|
|
BINAY, Jejomar C.
|
17.0
|
4 ü
|
13.0
|
4 ü
|
12.7
|
4
|
|
|
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam (Second bid)
|
2.0
|
5 ü
|
2.0
|
5 ü
|
3.4
|
5
|
|
|
SEÑERES,
Roy (†)
|
Withdrew his candidacy and died during
campaign period, his name is still included in printed ballots
|
||||||
|
PROJECTED WINNER: DUTERTE, Rodrigo R. (both via
Pulse Asia and SWS) ü
SIXTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE
PHILIPPINES: DUTERTE, Rodrigo R. (incumbent 2016-2022)
|
|||||||
CONCLUSION. With
the historical results of both SWS and Pulse Asia, we can see that the two
pollsters actually did a very great job in predicting the next four (4) chief
executives of the Philippines after the late President Corazon Aquino. Moreover,
they also predicted correctly at least the Top 5 candidates for the 1998, 2004,
and 2010 elections. With 2016 presidential elections still to come, SWS and
Pulse Asia will be doing their very best to provide truthful and reliable
survey results for the Filipinos to see. Though surveys are just to represent a
part of the whole, but the presidential polls conducted by these two
organizations are already “tried and tested,” and their final polls to be
published in the coming days will be ready to be verified (or maybe denied) by
the Filipino people when they cast their votes next week.
POST SCRIPT. In a recent interview by GMA News to a senior officer of SWS (sorry forgot his name), he said that the survey results leading to the election may not reflect the actual voter share. He emphasized that according to their past research, they found out that there are 15% of the voters that make their electoral decisions on the election day itself. While there are still days before the election, please bear in mind that the results of the elections matter, surveys are just guides. May God bless us and the upcoming elections.
POST SCRIPT. In a recent interview by GMA News to a senior officer of SWS (sorry forgot his name), he said that the survey results leading to the election may not reflect the actual voter share. He emphasized that according to their past research, they found out that there are 15% of the voters that make their electoral decisions on the election day itself. While there are still days before the election, please bear in mind that the results of the elections matter, surveys are just guides. May God bless us and the upcoming elections.
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