Eleksyon 2016: FINAL Results of Self-Initiated Survey (as of 01MAY2016 2000H)

IMPORTANT. As all survey results use several respondents to represent the whole, this survey is also done by that principle. This survey does not intend to spoil or sabotage a campaign of any candidate, this is only made for one purpose: to seek the truth.

INTRODUCTION. This is the report on the final results of my independent, non-partisan self-initiated survey which ran for six days from 26 April until 1 May 2016, just under two weeks before the Election Day on 9 May. Only 200 people from all over City of Manila who directly replied to our queries were counted in, as many of the potential respondents wished not to disclose their preferences for personal and privacy reasons.

GENERATION OF RESULTS. All data from the 200 respondents are manually inputted in the Microsoft Excel. With the help of several Excel formulae, the software automatically counts the total preference (T.P.) for each candidate and automatically generates the table of results we see in every report of survey results, and the line graph that you are about to see below. NOTHING WAS MANUALLY COMPUTED. Also, the Excel generates the Margin of Error for each position (to be discussed in the succeeding sections).

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PROFILES. There are actually six (6) people who were approved by the Commission of Elections (COMELEC) to run for president. They are (in alphabetical order of surnames):

#	CANDIDATE	DE FACTO HOME TURFS	MOST RECENT POSITION
1	BINAY, Jejomar	Makati City (NCR)	Vice President of the Philippines (incumbent)
2	DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam	Iloilo (Western Visayas)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)
3	DUTERTE, Rodrigo	Davao City (Davao Region)	Mayor of Davao City (incumbent)
4	POE, Grace	Pangasinan (Ilocos Region)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)
5	ROXAS, Manuel II	Roxas City (Western Visayas)	Secretary of the Interior and Local Government (2012-2015)
6	SEÑERES, Roy	Not known	Representative, OFW Family Club Party List (incumbent, if still living)

Rep. Roy Señeres, former Philippine ambassador to the United Arab Emirates who successfully handled the case of a death row convict Sarah Balabagan, withdrew his candidacy due to health problems, which the COMELEC at first rejected. He died three days later due to cardiac arrest. However, since the ballot printing had already commenced, the COMELEC decided to still include his name in the ballots, but all votes for him will be considered void.

During their respective campaigns, the remaining five presidentiables take pride of their achievements in public service:

BINAY: changes and reforms while he was Mayor of Makati City

DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO: eradicating corruption when the country’s Bureau of Immigration was under her watch

DUTERTE: maintaining peace and order while Mayor of Davao City

POE: formally giving up American citizenship to accept chairmanship of the Movie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB)

ROXAS: no corruption charges in his long time in public service

And as expected, there were constant mud-slinging and none of them was spared from issues thrown at them by fellow candidates or by the public. However, many of the issues are still not proven and/or under investigation, so for the sake of fairness, I will not tackle them here.

VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PROFILES. The COMELEC also approved the candidacy of six (6) personalities to run for the second highest executive position up for grabs this 2016. They are (in alphabetical order of surnames):

#	CANDIDATE	DE FACTO HOME TURFS	MOST RECENT POSITION
1	CAYETANO, Alan Peter	Taguig City (NCR)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)
2	ESCUDERO, Francis	Sorsogon (Bicol Region)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)
3	HONASAN, Gregorio	Manila (NCR)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)
4	MARCOS, Ferdinand Jr.	Ilocos Norte (Ilocos Region)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)
5	ROBREDO, Leni	Naga City (Bicol Region)	Representative, Second Legislative District of Camarines Sur (incumbent)
6	TRILLANES, Antonio IV	Quezon City (NCR)	Senator of the Philippines (incumbent)

If any of you noticed, all of the vice presidentiables are currently holding government (legislative, in particular) positions. With the exception of Rep. Robredo, all others are incumbent senators. This coincidence may be the first in Philippine electoral history for top exec positions, correct me if I am wrong.

Unlike in the United States where President and Vice President are voted together (two positions can be won by one party/tandem only), Filipino voters select for the two different positions separately, that is why the Philippines had had history of having President and Vice President coming from different tickets (in 1957 Garcia-Macapagal victory, 1992 Ramos-Estrada victory, 1998 Estrada-Arroyo, and most recently 2010 Aquino-Binay).

This time in 2016, there are 5 presidentiables and 6 vice presidentiables, so there will be one presidential candidate that is supported by two in the vice presidential race, and that became a reality now with Sen. Grace Poe having two vice presidential hopefuls rooting for her: her running mate Sen. Escudero, and independent candidate Sen. Trillanes. Sen. Cayetano teams up with Mayor Duterte; Sen. Honasan is picked by Vice President Binay; Sen. Marcos Jr. is selected by Sen. Defensor-Santiago; and Rep. Robredo accepted former Sec. Roxas' offer to be his running mate.

MANILA MAYORAL CANDIDATE PROFILES. There are at least three (3) frontrunners in the Manila mayoral elections:

FRONTRUNNERS	DE FACTO HOME TURFS	MOST RECENT POSITION
BAGATSING, Amado	Ermita-Malate (District V)	Representative, Fifth Legislative District of Manila (incumbent)
ESTRADA, Joseph Ejercito	Tondo (District I)	Mayor of Manila (incumbent)
LIM, Alfredo	Tondo (District I)	Mayor of Manila (2007-2013)

Rep. Bagatsing is vying for the mayoral seat which he attempted to take during 2001 elections, but lost to former Manila Mayor Lito Atienza. Rep. Bagatsing is the son of the former Manila Mayor Ramon Bagatsing (served 1972-1986) who became the city’s top exec until all local officials were called to resign by former President Corazon Aquino under revolutionary government, to which the former mayor complied. Rep. Bagatsing is term-limited and is barred to run again for congressman to which he is elected for three terms (2007-2016).

The incumbent Mayor Estrada is the 13^th President of the Republic of the Philippines, the post he held for more than two years. He left the presidency 20 January 2001 during the EDSA II Revolution due to corruption charges (for which he was convicted in 2007 but was quickly pardoned by his successor former President Gloria Arroyo). He was Mayor of San Juan City for a long time (1969-1986) but had to submit also to calls of late Pres. C. Aquino for the resignation of local executives. Before he clinched victory at the 1998 presidential elections by the hugest margin in Philippine electoral history, he was elected Senator of the Philippines in 1987, and Vice President of the Philippines in 1992 and was former Pres. Fidel Ramos’ man for anti-crime and anti-kidnapping campaign. He decided to make a comeback to the Malacañang in 2010, but bowed down to current President Benigno Aquino III. He was elected to the top Manila position in 2013.

Meanwhile, the former Mayor Lim is a four-term (albeit non-consecutive) mayor of Manila (1992-1998, 2007-2013). He was an NBI chief during the administration of the late Pres. C. Aquino, only to resign and run for the 1992 Manila elections due to insistent demand from Manila public who longed for a leader who can decisively end crimes in the city. He ran for the presidency in 1998 but lost to Mayor Estrada (their first of three election face-offs), but was appointed by Estrada to be the Secretary of Interior and Local Government, which he held until Estrada’s resignation. He decided to reclaim the mayoralty in 2001 but lost to Atienza. He successfully claimed a Senate seat in 2004 under Estrada-backed ticket. He decided to take back once again the mayoral position in 2007 and won. But in 2013, Lim and Estrada went head-to-head for their second political face-off, to which Estrada won by only a narrow margin. (See this post for more details.) This 2016, “Asiong Salonga” Estrada and “Dirty Harry” Lim are up again for battle, but now with more opponents joining the contest for the three-year tenure of Manila mayoralty.

VICE MAYORAL CANDIDATE PROFILES. There are at least four (4) frontrunners for the position of vice mayor of Manila:

FRONTRUNNERS	DE FACTO HOME TURFS	MOST RECENT POSITION
ASILO, Benjamin	Tondo (District I)	Representative, First Legislative District of Manila (incumbent)
ATIENZA, Arnold	Ermita-Malate (District V)	Councilor, Fifth Legislative District of Manila (incumbent)
BONOAN-DAVID, Trisha	Sampaloc (District IV)	Representative, Fourth Legislative District of Manila (incumbent)
LACUNA, Honey	Sampaloc (District IV)	Social Services Head, City of Manila (incumbent)

Rep. Asilo will be completing his three terms as congressman (2007-2016) of the City’s First District, thus he is barred to run again for the post. He was picked by former Mayor Lim to be his running mate.

Councilor Atienza is the son of former Mayor L. Atienza. He ran for mayor in 2007 in an effort to follow his father’s footsteps but lost to Mayor Lim. He continued his political career via successful wins as councilor of Fifth District (taking Number 1 spot in the 2013 elections). He teams up with Rep. Bagatsing.

Rep. Bonoan-David is the current congresswoman of the Fourth District, which she held for three consecutive terms (2007-2016), with the last election running unopposed. She is term-limited and is barred to seek re-election. She endorses former Mayor Lim for the mayoralty.

Hon. Lacuna (Lacuna-Pangan in real life) was a councilor of the Fourth District of Manila. She joined Mayor Estrada’s city government by accepting the office of Social Services Head. She is related to the three-term Vice Mayor Danilo Lacuna (2001-2010). Mayor Estrada picked her to be his running mate this 2016 as current vice mayor Isko Moreno is term-limited and is now seeking a Senate seat.

FINAL RESULTS. As of 8:00PM of 1 May 2016, after gathering data from 200 respondents from different parts of the City of Manila, below are the final tallies for this independent survey.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte emerges as top choice among voters of Manila. Sen. Grace Poe replaces Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago at the second spot.

Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. solidifies his lead among other candidates, making him the choice of the majority of Manila voters. Rep. Leni Robredo remains at number two.

Incumbent Mayor Joseph Estrada still leads but former Mayor Alfredo Lim and Rep. Amado Bagatsing are not far from being Manila's choice for city mayor. A quarter of the respondents are undecided.

Councilor Arnold Atienza overtakes the former leader Hon. Honey Lacuna, now leads with only 1% margin. 4 out of 10 voters cannot decide which candidate they will favor.

NOTE: The margin of error (MOE) is computed by Microsoft Excel by using the basic formula z-score (critical value of half of the alpha, with alpha being 1 minus the level of confidence) multiplied by the quantity of the standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of respondents.

COMPARATIVE RESULTS.

Mayor Duterte sheds 10% while Senator Poe gained 15% as compared to the last partial survey report. Sen. Defensor-Santiago also registered a downward trend. 
(NOTE: Values are rounded-off, so they might not sum up to exactly 100%)

Sen. Marcos Jr. cemented his lead over his opponents in the City of Manila, with no significant change in his preference rating (if we are to consider Vice Presidential Survey MOE at plus/minus 3.4%). Rep. Robredo registered decrease in ratings.
(NOTE: Values are rounded-off, so they might not sum up to exactly 100%)

As of the final survey result, the incumbent Mayor Estrada is leading, but former Mayor Lim and Rep. Bagatsing are not so distant, considering there are 25% undecided for this position, it is still a three-way game.
(NOTE: Values are rounded-off, so they might not sum up to exactly 100%)

Hon. Lacuna was leading for all the partial results, but supporters from southern Manila helped boost the ratings of Councilor Atienza, grabbing top spot for the vice mayoral race. However, with the MOE of plus/minus 2.7% and the undecided voters rate of 43%, it is still uncertain who will be the victor of this position.
(NOTE: Values are rounded-off, so they might not sum up to exactly 100%)

LINE GRAPHS.

Despite downward trend, Mayor Duterte is still leading in Manila.

Sen. Marcos Jr. is the runaway winner of the vice presidential survey.

You see how stiff the competition is for the mayoral post!

Green (Atienza) taking over the former leader, orange (Lacuna).

CONCLUSION. Based from the final results of this survey, the City of Manila will most likely be a bailiwick for both Mayor Duterte and Senator Marcos Jr. However, with Senator Grace Poe’s numbers shooting up until the end of the survey, I expect that more and more voters will consider her for the presidency.

For the local positions, there is a high percentage of undecided voters. Though Mayor Estrada and Councilor Atienza are on the lead, the other frontrunners still have chances of winning. Therefore, I cannot say clearly who will be the next mayor and vice mayor of Manila. It will still depend on the strategy of the candidates in the last few days of campaign: on how they present their plans and projects, on how they see the current situation, on how much aggressiveness and determination they show the Manilans, and on how much sincerity they give for all walks of life.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. I thank first our Lord God Almighty for keeping me safe and healthy while I do this survey. I thank the people who helped me gather voters’ preferences, they are my brother NJLC and friend PMO. I thank my Facebook and WeChat friends for replying to my/our messages and for entrusting me your candidate selections, please know how precious your opinions are. I thank all the people whom I directly approached for face-to-face interviews, thank you for the willingness to provide information and for the thoughts on the upcoming highly-contested elections. May God bless you all.

POST SCRIPT (MAYBE NOT RELATED). I really love mathematics, and for the love of mathematics, I do make statistics. I’ve been doing self-initiated surveys since I was a kid (ask my classmates haha!). So this was just a way to give myself an experience not all people are willing to undertake, and a way to provide myself a room for self-improvement: on how to properly approach people (from Class A to E), on how to be aware on the things that really happen as I go around Manila. Yes, this major undertaking is difficult, but the joy of sharing what I know and what I experience are the driving factors for the completion of this task. Vote wisely and let God be our light during this critical time.